Sunday, March 9, 2025

The Surrey-Sussex Devolution Plan: Calculating the Timing

In mid-December 2024, the UK government published the English Devolution White Paper, outlining its plan to put England’s regions at the centre of the government’s Plan for Change mission. The goal is to drive economic growth, deliver 1.5 million homes, improve infrastructure, and boost opportunities across the country.

In early February 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner announced a new devolution drive, intended to streamline governance and shift power closer to local communities. However, the plan has sparked both optimism and controversy – particularly due to the postponement of local elections in several authorities. While ministers claim the plan will enhance economic growth and efficiency, critics argue it risks centralisation under larger authorities, financial instability, and delays in democratic elections.

The Devolution Agenda: An Overview

The government’s devolution strategy is built on creating unitary authorities by merging smaller councils, reducing the number of governing bodies while expanding the population each authority serves. This restructuring aims to:

Decentralise power, giving local leaders greater control over regional decision-making.
Streamline governance, reducing bureaucracy and duplication of services.
Improve economic coordination, with elected mayors overseeing infrastructure, transport, and housing policies.

However, concerns have been raised regarding:

Loss of local representation, with smaller communities potentially overshadowed by larger urban centres.
Financial risks, particularly regarding councils with high levels of debt.
The speed of implementation, with some questioning whether the process is being rushed without sufficient public consultation.

Postponement of Local Elections

On February 5, 2025, the government announced that local elections in nine councils, including Surrey, Sussex, and Essex, would be postponed until May 2026. The affected areas include:

Norfolk County Council
Suffolk County Council
Essex County Council
Thurrock Council
Hampshire County Council
Isle of Wight Council
East Sussex County Council
West Sussex County Council
Surrey County Council

This decision affects over 5.5 million voters, who will now have to wait an additional year to elect their local representatives.

Critics argue this move disenfranchises residents, effectively extending the terms of current councillors without voter consent. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage denounced the move as a “cancellation of democracy”. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey called it a political stitch-up between Labour and the Conservatives. If devolution was in the pipeline, why wasn’t it concluded before the local election timetable?

Concerns in Proposed Merged Areas

Surrey & Sussex: Financial Strains and Political Divisions
One of the most pressing concerns in Surrey is the financial instability of Woking Borough Council, which declared bankruptcy in 2023 after accumulating £2bn in debt due to failed investments.

Surrey County Council has requested that the government write off Woking’s debt to prevent it from burdening the new unitary authority. Debt-free councils such as Tandridge and Reigate have protested, fearing they may be forced to absorb financial liabilities. The total debt across all Surrey councils is estimated at £5bn, raising serious concerns about financial sustainability.

In Sussex, the merger of East Sussex, West Sussex, and Brighton & Hove into a single unitary authority is set to replace existing councils and introduce a regional mayor.

While this could improve economic coordination, smaller communities fear that local decision-making could be weakened.

Oxfordshire & The North West (Warrington, Cheshire)

In Oxfordshire, the main concerns are:

Loss of local identity, as larger councils take over governance. Potential dilution of local decision-making, affecting planning, housing, and social care.

In Warrington and Cheshire, councils have been more receptive to devolution, believing it could drive economic growth. However, concerns persist over the balance of power between unitary authorities and elected mayors.

Potential Benefits of Devolution

Stronger Local Leadership: A single unitary authority per region could mean clearer decision-making, with mayors having greater power over transport, housing, and economic strategy.
Cost Efficiency and Service Integration: Fewer councils could lead to cost savings by reducing bureaucracy and streamlining public services. Greater Investment and Economic Growth: Ministers claim that devolved regions will attract more funding and greater investment opportunities.

Major Risks and Challenges

Postponed Elections & Democratic Deficit: Over 5.5 million people will be without fresh elections until 2026.
Financial Burdens: Woking’s £2bn debt could be spread across merged councils, unfairly affecting debt-free regions.
Centralisation of Power: Rather than decentralisation, unitary authorities may reduce local accountability.
High Transition Costs: Past reorganisations have shown upfront costs ranging from £25m to £100m per council, raising questions about long-term savings.

Key Questions and Unresolved Issues

Who will absorb the debts of struggling councils like Woking? Will postponed elections disenfranchise millions, or allow for a smoother transition? Can mayors ensure fair representation across large unitary authorities? Will the costs of transition outweigh the long-term benefits?

What Comes Next?

March – May 2025: Councils will submit full reorganisation proposals to the government. Summer 2025: The government will finalise governance models and financial frameworks for the new unitary authorities. May 2026: Postponed local elections take place, followed by the transition to new councils and elected mayors.

Final Take: Proceed with Caution

If executed well, devolution could empower local areas, improve services, and attract investment.
If mismanaged, it could lead to democratic deficits, financial instability, and bloated bureaucracy.

To move forward, three critical conditions must be met:
Democratic safeguards: No prolonged governance without fresh elections.
Financial stability: No forced absorption of debt without clear government assistance.
True local representation: Small towns and rural areas must not lose influence to larger urban centres.

Without these, devolution could become an expensive and politically driven power grab rather than genuine empowerment. This remains one of the most significant local government shake-ups in 50 years. Further updates will follow as councils finalise their reorganisation plans.

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